The U.S. has been pushing the Taliban and the Afghan government to find a political solution for the past year and a half. But every time it seems the parties are close to starting peace talks, a new demand or controversy arises and nothing happens.
In the latest attempt, the Taliban finally opened a political office in Qatar, a move that was supposed to set the stage for negotiations. But when the Taliban envoys gave that office the trappings of an embassy, a furious Hamid Karzai, the Afghan president, called off the talks, and they have yet to be re-scheduled.
Amid the uncertain prospects, the Taliban have continued their annual summer offensive, staging major attacks in Kabul and elsewhere.
"I think when you've got a war like this, it's actually easier to continue it than not," says Kate Clark, senior analyst at the Afghanistan Analysts Network, a think tank in Kabul.
"In some ways it seems like you have to decide what this war's about first before you can make the peace," say Clark. She argues that it's not entirely clear anymore what the Taliban are fighting for. Is it the removal of foreign troops? The overthrow of the Karzai government? The creation of an Islamic emirate?
A Divided Taliban Leadership
The problem, say analysts, boils down to divisions within the Taliban leadership.
"As long as a significant swathe of the Taliban believes that they are going to achieve a swift military victory after the U.S. departure, there'll be no serious negotiations," says Michael Semple. He was a U.N. envoy to Kabul during the Taliban regime and is an expert on reconciliation issues in Afghanistan.
He says one Taliban faction thinks the Afghan government will collapse after the withdrawal of NATO troops. Therefore, they believe they have more to gain if they keep fighting.
But, another faction believes a military victory is unattainable – and that there's a risk of renewed civil war once NATO troops leave with the Taliban becoming just one of multiple factions fighting for scraps of political power.
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